Noah King
For many years, incumbency in federal contracting felt like a safety net. If you were performing reasonably well, it was easy to assume that your recompete was yours to lose. That assumption is no longer safe. Budget pressure, the legacy of lowest price technically acceptable (LPTA) buying, evolving evaluation methods, small business and socioeconomic set-asides, and a steady flow of new, digitally savvy entrants have all changed the landscape. Agencies are under pressure to demonstrate competition, innovation, and value. As a result, incumbents are losing work they once considered secure.
Incumbents often lose not because they suddenly became incapable, but because their advantage erodes slowly over the life of the contract. Complacency in delivery can show up as “steady state” service that never quite responds to new mission needs. User experience may lag behind commercial expectations, especially for digital services and data platforms. Solutions become stale as technology, policy, and agency priorities evolve. CPARS narratives begin to hint at recurring issues with responsiveness, staffing continuity, or communication. At the same time, competitors are studying the program, talking to users, and building a sharper, more current vision for the next phase.
Another frequent failure point is weak market research and late capture. Incumbent teams sometimes assume they “know the customer” and spend less time on systematic opportunity targeting, stakeholder mapping, and solution refresh. They may not track shifts in agency strategy, budget constraints, or leadership priorities that will shape the next solicitation. By the time the draft RFP appears, a challenger may already have invested months in listening to pain points, crafting a differentiated approach, and positioning themselves as the new, lower-risk option.
Protecting your position starts with reframing performance as continuous capture. The day you win is the day you begin re-earning the work. Program managers, capture leads, and BD should collaborate throughout performance to understand evolving mission outcomes, document value, and surface opportunities for improvement. Regular, structured engagement with both decision-makers and end users helps you see what is working, where friction remains, and how expectations are changing. This is not about constant upselling; it is about demonstrating that you are actively solving problems and anticipating what comes next.
Visible innovation is another critical element. You do not need to overhaul the solution every quarter, but you should be able to point to a steady cadence of enhancements: better workflows, improved reporting, automation that reduces manual burden, or user experience improvements that make the system more intuitive. When recompetition conversations begin, agencies should already associate your team with progress, not just maintenance. Strong transition planning is equally important. Evaluators know incumbents can be vulnerable during turnover, key personnel changes, and handoffs between task orders or contracts. A well-articulated plan for continuity, knowledge transfer, and risk management helps you counter the narrative that a “fresh start” with a new contractor is safer.
Pricing also matters more than many incumbents admit. If your indirect rates have climbed and your models have not kept pace, you may be walking into recompetes with pricing that feels out of touch with market reality. Competitive pricing informed by real cost data gives you options: you can make targeted concessions where they matter most, structure labor mixes intelligently, and align contract type with the risk you can manage. Finally, incumbents who win recompetes treat them as proactive campaigns. They monitor forecasts, engage early, respond to RFIs, and provide thoughtful feedback on draft documents. They help shape evaluation criteria toward outcomes they already deliver well.
Incumbency can still be a powerful advantage, but only if it is actively defended. If you want to understand your true incumbent risk and build a re-compete strategy that aligns delivery, capture, and pricing, a FEDCON advisor can work with you to assess your current programs, identify vulnerabilities, and design a plan to protect the positions you have worked hard to earn.
